Transparent models. Trusted insights.

100,000 torneos simulados · seed 42 (reproducible)

Modelo: Elo efectivo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles + bracket FIFA/Annex C

Escala de bonos: BONUS_SCALE = 1.15

Source audit

Model assumptions, data boundaries, source freshness, and validation rules.

Model

open-agents/tools/montecarlo/data/results.json

open-agents/tools/montecarlo/data/teams.json

open-agents/tools/montecarlo/data/teams_audit.json

data/estadisticas/simulacion-monte-carlo.md

data/paises/grupo-*/calendario.md

data/estadisticas/sedes-estadios.md

TeamsGroupConfidenceSource freshness

MexicoAMedium2026-06

Czech RepublicALow2026-06

South KoreaALow2026-06

South AfricaALow2026-06

SwitzerlandBHigh2026-06

CanadaBMedium2026-06

Bosnia and HerzegovinaBLow2026-06

QatarBMedium2026-06

Source audit

Ingest

Validate

Model

Publish