1. Spain
Group H · Final 23.51%
14.91%
CI ±0.22% · R32 96.96%
Simulation
Model facts
Millions of outcomes. One clear picture.
Model facts
seed 42Spain2155
Argentina2113
France2062
100,000
Simulations
42
Seed
48
Teams
Top champion probabilities
Top 52. England
Group L · Final 19.72%
11.85%
CI ±0.2% · R32 95.1%
3. France
Group I · Final 19.7%
11.83%
CI ±0.2% · R32 93.52%
4. Argentina
Group J · Final 19.38%
11.65%
CI ±0.2% · R32 94.38%
5. Germany
Group E · Final 13.23%
7.3%
CI ±0.16% · R32 94.46%
Model facts
- Model
- Effective Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles + FIFA/Annex C bracket
- CI note
- 95% CI derived from the simulation's binomial variance.
Model facts
Spain
Group H · High
Argentina
Group J · High
France
Group I · High
England
Group L · High
Brazil
Group C · High
Portugal
Group K · High
Matchday estimates
Fixtures for Sunday, October 25, 2026
No fixtures scheduled for this matchday.